June 19, 2013

U.S. hiring outlook positive; global employers uncertain: report

 U.S. hiring outlook positive; global employers uncertain: report

() – More employers in the United States plan to hire workers next quarter than in any period since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to a survey by Group (MAN.N), the global employment services giant.

Manpower’s quarterly survey released Tuesday found most employers around the globe were uncertain about hiring more workers in the July through September period given tepid consumer demand. There were certain bright spots, however, with employers in the United States and some parts of Europe feeling cautiously optimistic.

“If you look at it from a , the overall feeling is that there are definitely challenges,” said Manpower’s Jeff Joerres. But he said employers are more optimistic than in past months about global economic prospects.

Manpower, which surveyed 42 economies, found that employers in 31 countries and territories planned to hire next quarter. Hiring intentions strengthened in 17 economies, including Spain, Greece and the United States, compared to the previous quarter.

Hiring intentions remained unchanged in four economies and weakened in 21, including France, China and India.

The United States added 175,000 jobs last month after adding only 149,000 in April, the Labor Department said on Friday. The rose a tenth of a point to 7.6 percent.

The United States’ net ticked forward one point from the previous quarter to a seasonally adjusted plus-12, the report said. The outlook measures the difference between those adding jobs and those cutting jobs. Manpower’s index is a directional indicator rather than a predictor of the size of job gains.

For the second , employers in all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico have reported positive hiring plans, Manpower said.

Joerres said U.S. companies still have concerns about what will happen next in areas like Europe or China, about and general .

“In the past, that would shock the system,” he said. “Today, we’re used to shocks.”

More than one in four employers in the U.S. construction sector have said they will hire in the quarter beginning in July, the strongest outlook since before the global recession. This is a positive sign for the housing market, Joerres said.

In Europe, hiring has stalled with growing uncertainties among employers, the report said. But Joerres said the region has had some positive indicators, including in Greece, which has seen its still-negative hiring outlook improve for four consecutive quarters.

“We’re not saying Europe is out of the woods,” Joerres said. “It’s that Europe is still moving and driving towards an overall solution rather than falling off the cliff, and that’s positive for the rest of the world.”

‘LESS EMERGING AND MORE MATURE’

Hiring outlooks weakened in most of the Asia Pacific region, most significantly in India, which reported the weakest expectations since joining Manpower’s survey eight years ago.

While none of the Indian employers surveyed by Manpower said they intended to reduce their workforce this quarter, the hiring expectations dropped 6 points from the previous quarter and 28 points from a year earlier to a plus-18. Joerres said the decline is partly due to the slowdown of India’s business process outsourcing industry, which has matured.

“The Indias and Chinas of the world are in some ways less emerging and more mature, and are feeling some of the illnesses of a mature economy,” Joerres said.

Sixty-one percent of Indian employers have also struggled to find suitable employees, telling Manpower that recent graduates of India’s business and engineering schools often lack necessary hard and soft skills.

The talent shortage has been an issue worldwide, with a lack of skilled trades workers topping the list. Thirty-five percent of employers reported difficulties in filling positions due to a talent shortage, the highest proportion since 2007.

Employers in the United States and Germany, however, reported a smaller talent shortage this year than last year, with the lowest percentages reported in both countries since 2010.

Thirty-nine percent of U.S. employers reported difficulties in filling positions, 10 percentage points less than last year, and 35 percent of German employers, 7 percentage points less.

(Reporting by Madeline Will; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Pickup in hiring points to U.S. economic resilience

 Pickup in hiring points to U.S. economic resilience

() – Employers stepped up hiring a bit in May in a show of economic that suggests the Federal Reserve could begin to scale back its monetary stimulus later this year.

The United States added 175,000 jobs last month after adding only 149,000 in April, the said on Friday.

The pick up in hiring came despite tax hikes and sweeping earlier in the year. The ticked up a tenth of a point to 7.6 percent, which economists called encouraging because more Americans were began to hunt for jobs.

“The labor market continues to trudge forward,” said Jim Baird, an investment officer for Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Even so, the jobless rate remains well above pre- levels and May marked the third straight month that U.S. payrolls increased by less than 200,000.

The report showed an economy still in need of the Fed’s pedal-to-the-metal support, but one which could be strong enough by September for the U.S. central bank to ease up on its bond-buying stimulus, many economists said.

“It’s constructive enough to support the notion that bond buying should be curtailed as we go into the late third (or) early fourth quarter,” said Ian Lyngen, a bond strategist at CRT in Stamford, Connecticut.

Officials at the U.S. central bank, who next gather on June 18-19, have intimated they could be close to reducing their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases even though the recovery is not expected to pick up steam until late in the year when the sting from government spending cuts begins to fade.

The May job growth figure was just above the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, and U.S. stock prices rose sharply on the report, with the blue chip industrial average closing up nearly 1.4 percent.

The dollar also firmed and yields on U.S. government bonds climbed modestly in anticipation of Fed action later this year.

Of economists polled by Reuters after the data, 42 of 48 said they expected the central bank to trim bond purchases before year-end. Of those, 21 said a reduction would likely occur in the third quarter; 19 specified September.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser told Reuters the jobs figures showed that fears were overdone of how hard a tightening of would hit the economy. He repeated his call for the central bank to start easing up on its stimulus sooner rather than later.

“We would all like it to be stronger but there’s no reason for us to feel bad about the numbers that came out,” he said.

LASTING DAMAGE

Many analysts expect Washington’s austerity drive to slow the economy to a growth pace of around 1.5 percent in the second quarter from a 2.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter.

Budget cuts have prompted hiring freezes at government agencies. Government payrolls declined by 3,000 in May.

May’s pace of job growth is right around the average for the prior 12 months. Over that period, the jobless rate fell about half a and the ranks of the long-term unemployed declined by about 1 million people.

“From a worker point of view, of course, you’d like to see a more robust recovery,” said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The report added evidence that U.S. factories have felt the pinch from budget cuts in Europe stemming from the debt crisis. U.S. manufacturing employment declined by 8,000 jobs last month.

“The politics of austerity still hold the world in a vise-like grip,” said Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO labor organization.

While total hours worked in the U.S. economy ticked higher, average were essentially flat. Over the past 12 months, earnings have risen just 2 percent, extending a years-long trend of lackluster income growth.

The biggest job gains were in professional and business services, with temporary jobs up 26,000 in a sign employers might add full-time staff in coming months. The leisure and hospitality industry also showed strength, as did retail and construction.

One strong economic signal was that the jobless rate rose slightly because a flood of people entered the workforce.

In May, 420,000 people entered the workforce, defined as a person either be employed or looking for work. Economists consider that good news because some of the recent drop in the jobless rate had been due to discouraged workers dropping out of the labor pool.

The share of the population in the labor force rose to 63.4 percent.

In another positive sign, the government’s household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed even stronger job growth than the payroll survey of employers. Those figures, however, can be volatile month to month.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Chris Reese, Luciana Lopez, Herb Lash and Ellen Freilich in New York, and Jonathan Spicer in Philadelphia; Editing by Neil Stempleman and Tim Ahmann)

Hiring seen pointing to economy in need of Fed’s help

 Hiring seen pointing to economy in need of Feds help

(Reuters) – Employers likely stepped up hiring only slightly in May, a sign the economy was growing modestly but not strongly enough to convince the Federal Reserve to scale back the amount of cash it is pumping into the .

The United States probably added 170,000 jobs last month, with the holding steady at a lofty 7.5 percent, according to a of economists.

Following a winter in which the economy seemed to be turning a corner, May would be the third straight month that payrolls outside the farm sector increased by less than 200,000.

“The labor market may not be as strong as we thought,” said Kevin Cummins, an economist at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

The will release the May on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The report could heighten concerns government enacted this year is sapping vigor from the economy, and might dampen speculation the Fed might soon trim bond purchases aimed at lowering interest rates and boosting employment.

Officials at the U.S. central bank have intimated they could be close to tapering bond purchases despite modest economic growth which is not expected to pick up until late in the year when the sting from government spending cuts begins to fade.

have led to hiring freezes at many government agencies, and attrition could be slowly reducing payrolls. Government payrolls are expected to decline by 10,000 in May.

LASTING DAMAGE

About 4.4 million Americans have been unemployed for more than six months, roughly three million more than pre- levels. The longer workers are out of a job, the greater the risk they become essentially unemployable. That could deal lasting damage to the economy and has lent urgency to the Fed’s efforts to stimulate growth.

Still, May’s expected pace of job growth is right around the average for the 12 months through April. Over that period the jobless rate fell about half a and the ranks of the long-term unemployed declined by nearly 700,000.

“It’s progress that’s too slow, but it’s progress nonetheless,” said Guy Berger, an economist at RBS, also in Stamford.

next meet June 18-19 and are widely expected to keep purchasing $85 billion in bonds a month. Many economists don’t expect the job market to be strong enough for the Fed to begin scaling back its bond purchases before December.

After barely growing in the last three months of 2012, the U.S. economy expanded at a moderate 2.4 percent annual rate in the first quarter but lost momentum as the quarter drew to a close. Most economists look for growth of around 1.5 percent in the current quarter.

U.S. factories are feeling the pinch from Europe’s debt crisis, which has sent a chill over the global economy. The Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted in May. Manufacturing employment is seen rising by a meager 3,000 jobs last month.

The report is expected to show the length of the average edged higher to 34.5 hours, which could signal demand is strong enough to trigger faster hiring in coming months. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.2 percent.

Another indicator of labor market health will come in the share of the population that is either employed or looking for work. Some of the recent drop in the jobless rate has been due to workers leaving the labor force, either because they retired, went back to school or gave up looking for a job.

The labor force participation rate was 63.3 percent in April, holding at a 34-year low for the second straight month. A stabilization of this indicator could point to more healing in the labor market.

(Reporting by Jason Lange Editing by Tim Ahmann and James Dalgleish)

Wall Street Week Ahead: Good news on jobs may be bad for stocks

 Wall Street Week Ahead: Good news on jobs may be bad for stocks

() – Standing conventional stock market wisdom on its head, investors may wish for weaker-than-expected employment numbers next Friday.

A strong jobs report could prompt an early end to the ’s policy of pumping money into the banking system to rescue the economy and set off the stock market’s long-awaited .

The Fed’s loose monetary policy since the end of 2008 has kept interest rates low and propelled stocks to .

Last week, stocks fell and surged after Fed Chairman said the U.S. central bank may decide to taper its stimulus programs in the next few policy meetings if data shows the economy is gaining traction.

Stocks posted their second straight week of losses on Friday, mostly on fears that the Fed would curb its bond-buying program sooner than most people expected.

“We’re in a mindset where the market seems to be very fearful of the Fed beginning a tapering,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

“Those who are in the market based on … will probably exit” if the May jobs number exceeds expectations, she said.

The market has managed to climb this year without any substantial pullback. Concerns about the Fed’s next move have increased speculation that a major bout of selling is ahead.

A stronger-than-expected jobs number “would continue to produce the concerns you’ve seen manifested in the market over the last couple of days,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, which manages about $58 billion in assets.

Economists say job gains of at least 200,000 per month over several months are needed to significantly reduce high unemployment.

The Fed has said it will keep interest rates at historic until the U.S. unemployment rate drops to 6.5 percent.

Employers are expected to have added 168,000 jobs to their payrolls in May, according to economists polled by Reuters. That’s slightly above April’s count of 165,000 new positions.

The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.5 percent in May.

To be sure, better-than-expected jobs data would be evidence of strength in the economy, a positive for the market in the long run, so any pullback could be short-lived, analysts said.

“If it’s a short-term correction, I think that would have to be opportunistic, in the sense that investors should take advantage of moving any sideline money into the equity market,” Luschini said.

Even with the recent losses – the Standard & Poor’s 500 index .SPX fell 1.1 percent this week – the index rose 14.34 percent for the first five months of 2013. That gain marked the S&P 500′s best first five months of any year since 1997.

DITCHING DIVIDEND STOCKS

A rotation out of high-yielding dividend stocks has already begun because of the rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields.

Dividend stocks had been among the market’s leaders for much of this year’s rally as investors favored those shares over fixed-income securities in a low interest-rate environment.

“The first crack we’ve seen is, as bond yields have been going up, people are moving out of that area,” said Eric Kuby, of North Star Investment Management Corp., in Chicago.

“Managers are starting to look at things other than consumer staples with nice dividends and stable businesses. So within the stock market, you’re seeing more volatility within sectors.”

The S&P 500 gained 2.1 percent for the month of May, while the S&P utilities sector index .SPLRCU lost 9.6 percent and the S&P consumer staples index .SPLRCS dropped 2.4 percent.

The spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s yield this week hit its narrowest in about a year. The S&P 500 dividend yield was at 2.39 percent, while the 10-year note’s yield hit 2.235 percent during the week.

By comparison, the dividend yield on the utilities sector stands at about 4 percent.

The move out of dividend-paying and other defensive shares should continue as the economy improves, Kuby said, though he pointed out that the market is still a “long way” from seeing high interest rates.

“The fact that rates are likely to creep up over time, that’s a given. And it’s not going to be sudden or dramatic. It’s going to be more gradual.”

IT’S RAINING NUMBERS

Next week will bring a snapshot of U.S. manufacturing activity from the , which releases its May index on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect a reading of 50.5 for May, compared with 50.7 in April.

Monday’s economic agenda also calls for April construction spending – forecast up 0.8 percent after a drop of 1.7 percent in March.

Domestic car and truck sales for May, also expected on Monday, are projected to have increased to 15.1 million units from April sales of about 14.9 million units, the showed.

The U.S. international trade deficit, set for release on Tuesday, is forecast to have widened slightly to $41 billion in April from $38.8 billion in March.

A preview of the jobs picture will come on Wednesday with the release of a report from payrolls processor ADP. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast that the ADP data will show private-sector employers added 165,000 jobs in May, compared with 119,000 in April.

Wednesday’s numbers to watch will include the ISM’s release of its U.S. services-sector Purchasing Managers’ Index for May. A reading of 53.4 is forecast for May, up from April’s 53.1.

The Fed’s Beige Book is expected on Wednesday afternoon. That report will give a look at the economy in 12 regional Federal Reserve bank districts.

On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits will grab attention – on the day before the big payrolls report from the U.S. government. Initial jobless claims are projected to have slipped to 345,000 in the week ended June 1 from 354,000 in the previous week.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: caroline.valetkevitch(at)thomsonreuters.com )

(Editing by Jan Paschal)

Job market resilience eases growth concerns

 Job market resilience eases growth concerns

() – Employment rose at a faster pace than expected in April and hiring was much stronger than previously thought in the prior two months, a sign of that should help the economy absorb the blow from belt-tightening in Washington.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 jobs last month and the fell to 7.5 percent, the lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said on Friday. The job counts for February and March were revised up by a net 114,000.

“This bolsters the case that the U.S. economy will be able to survive the combined headwinds of sequestration and a deepening recession in Europe,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at in San Francisco.

Investors on Wall Street cheered the data, which beat economists’ expectations for a 145,000 jobs gain and a steady 7.6 percent reading on the unemployment rate.

U.S. stocks rallied, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average closing at . The dollar vaulted to a one-week high against the yen, while Treasury tumbled.

Payrolls rose by 138,000 jobs in March, 50,000 more than previously reported, and job growth for February was revised up by 64,000 to 332,000, the largest increase since May 2010.

But the gains last month were far below the 206,000 jobs per month average of the first quarter, the latest evidence the economy is cooling, even if not as quickly as earlier feared.

Indeed, the data provided a number of signs of a loss of momentum.

Construction employment fell for the first time since May and manufacturing payrolls were flat. The length of the average workweek pulled off a nine-month high and a gauge of the overall work effort fell.

Economists pin the slowdown largely on higher taxes that took hold at the start of the year and $85 billion in federal cuts, known as the sequester, that went into effect at the beginning of March. Economies overseas have also weakened, cutting into U.S. export growth.

While the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the first quarter, data on construction spending, retail sales and trade suggested it ended the period with less speed.

Further, factory data for April imply the economy braked further at the start of the second quarter, a thesis supported by a report on Friday that showed the pace of growth in the services sector in April was the slowest in nine months.

“We are probably going into a second-quarter soft patch, but it’s not something that’s going to derail the recovery,” said Julia Coronado, chief North American economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

FED STILL IN PLAY

The 0.1 drop in the jobless rate reflected a gain in employment, rather than people leaving the workforce.

Indeed, more Americans entered the workforce than in any month since October. The labor force participation rate – the share of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one – held steady at a 34-year low of 63.3 percent.

While the pace of hiring was stronger than expected in April, it remained below the roughly 300,000 jobs a month that economists say are needed over a sustained period to put a significant dent in unemployment.

While the jobless rate has dropped 0.4 percentage point since January, employment is still 2.57 million jobs below where it stood in December 2007. At April’s job growth pace, it would take about 16 months to make up that lost ground.

About 21.9 million people are either unemployed, working only part-time although wanting full-time work, or want a job but have given up the search.

Economists said the data did not appear strong enough to dissuade officials at the from pressing forward with their bond-buying stimulus, given the immense slack still in the labor market. It did, however, dampen budding speculation the U.S. central bank might step up its purchases.

“It probably cools any expectations that the Fed is going to increase the asset purchases, especially with the unemployment rate declining,” said Raymond Stone, chief economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

A of economists at financial institutions that deal directly with the Fed found 11 of these so-called primary dealers expect the U.S. central bank to continue asset purchases into 2014, while just four saw the program ending this year.

GOVERNMENT JOB CUTS WEIGH

All the job gains last month were in the private sector, which added 176,000 new positions. Gains were led by a rebound in retail employment, which had dropped in March after eight straight months of increases. Retail payrolls rose 29,300.

Temporary help, a harbinger of future hiring, increased by the most since February. It has now risen for seven straight months.

“That tells me payroll growth is going to continue to be on a decent pace,” said Stone.

In a surprise, the construction sector shed 6,000 workers after 10 straight months of gains. Increases in residential construction were offset by declines in jobs for nonresidential builders and other construction workers.

Government payrolls dropped 11,000 after falling 16,000 in March. Most of the job losses last month came from the federal government, with big declines at the U.S. Postal Service, which is downsizing.

Average rose 0.2 percent. But with average hours worked by private workers slipping to 34.4 hours from 34.6 hours, weekly earnings actually fell.

“The decline in income coupled with a low saving rate does not bode well for consumers,” said Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Tim Ahmann, Neil Stempleman and Dan Grebler)

S&P posts 2013′s worst weekly drop on jobs data

 S&P posts 2013s worst weekly drop on jobs data

() – Stocks ended their worst week this year with losses on Friday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report undermined confidence in the economy and first- growth.

The jobs data, which showed employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months, was the latest in a series of disappointing .

Companies begin to report quarterly earnings next week, which is likely to be another concern for investors in light of recent . Analysts’ estimates for earnings growth in the first quarter have fallen since late last year, according to Thomson .

“I think could be less than stellar again. Given market performance to date, we could see some softness in the market because we’ve generated some healthy returns already,” said Natalie Trunow, of equities at Calvert Investment Management, which has about $13 billion in assets.

Stocks had been rallying on the Fed’s promise to keep providing stimulus and on mostly improving U.S. economic data. The S&P 500 is up 8.9 percent since the start of the year.

The S&P 500 was down 1 percent for the week. All but three of the S&P 500′s 10 industry sectors posted declines.

The government’s job report showed 88,000 jobs were added in March, less than half economists’ average forecast of 200,000. The dipped to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent, largely due to people dropping out of the work force.

Among recent weak data, a report Monday showed U.S. factory activity grew at the slowest rate in three months in March.

The S&P’s biggest percentage decliner was network gear maker F5 Networks Inc (FFIV.O), which dropped 19 percent to $73.21 a day after forecasting quarterly earnings and revenue well below Wall Street’s expectations.

The .DJI was down 40.86 points, or 0.28 percent, at 14,565.25. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 6.70 points, or 0.43 percent, at 1,553.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index . was down 21.12 points, or 0.66 percent, at 3,203.86.

For the week, the Dow declined 0.1 percent while the Nasdaq dropped 1.9 percent. The Russell 2000 index .TOY fell 3 percent for the week, its worst weekly decline since June.

Several of F5′s competitors were also sharply lower, with Juniper Networks (JNPR.N) off 3.1 percent at $17.55 and Citrix Systems (CTXS.O) down 1.2 percent at $68.90.

Airline stocks were hit after J.P Morgan Securities cut its revenue expectations for U.S. airlines by 2 percent to 3 percent for 2013 and 2014 and said it expects monthly revenue per available seat mile to turn negative for some airlines, partly due to the federal government’s automatic spending cuts.

Delta Airlines Inc (DAL.N) fell 2.4 percent to $14.39 and United Continental Holdings (UAL.N) was off 0.1 percent at $29.27.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to have risen just 1.6 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data, down from a 4.3 percent forecast in January.

Earnings grew 6.3 percent in the fourth-quarter, which was better than a late projection by analysts.

Volume was roughly 6.4 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the average daily closing volume of about 6.36 billion this year.

Decliners outpaced advancers on the NYSE by about 15 to 14 and on the Nasdaq by roughly 5 to 3.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Kenneth Barry)

Fed to hold course on stimulus despite debate over risks

 Fed to hold course on stimulus despite debate over risks

() – will spend much of a meeting next week debating the potential risks from the central bank’s , but Chairman Ben Bernanke has already signaled he believes the costs of inaction are even greater.

The U.S. central bank looks set to keep buying $85 billion a month in mortgage and in an effort to encourage investment and bolster a weak economic recovery.

A of recent data, from retail sales and manufacturing to employment, has shown the economy gathering some steam. Still, the unemployment rate remains uncomfortably high at 7.7 percent, while low inflation makes policymakers comfortable that there is to let the economy run.

“In light of the moderate pace of the recovery and the continued high level of economic slack, dialing back accommodation with the goal of deterring excessive risk-taking in some areas poses its own risks to growth, price stability, and, ultimately, financial stability,” Bernanke said on March 1.

The U.S. central bank will likely nod to the improving economic backdrop when it issues a statement at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Wednesday at the end of its two-day meeting. In forecasts accompanying the statement, it is expected to bump up projections for economic growth and lower predictions for unemployment.

However, it is also likely to renew its commitment to keep buying bonds until the employment outlook improves substantially. A published on Wednesday found economists look for the Fed to keep buying bonds for the rest of the year, taking total purchases in its third round of quantitative easing to $1 trillion.

It is a prospect that is not without opposition within the central bank. A number of Fed officials have become increasingly vocal about the program’s potential side effects, including the possibility of financial instability, asset bubbles or future inflation.

The Fed cut to near zero in December 2008. It has already bought more than $2.5 trillion in bonds, bloating its balance sheet to more than $3 trillion.

“I would like the (Fed) to begin to taper these purchases with an aim toward ending them before the end of the year,” Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said last week.

“We are trying to be easier and easier and easier,” he said. “I think we need to just stop and have some patience.”

GAUGING THE ECONOMY’S PROGRESS

Bernanke told Congress last month that the central bank is taking the concerns of Plosser and other officials seriously, and policymakers plan to review the efficacy and costs of the program next week with fresh analysis pulled together by staff.

It will fall to Bernanke, who will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. (1830 GMT) on Wednesday, to make sure the concerns expressed by Fed hawks do not scare investors into believing an end to bond purchases is imminent.

“I get the sense that the Fed’s attempts to measure the costs are not turning up anything very large,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute in Washington.

Right now, the U.S. stock market sees the economy as being in a sweet spot: Things are improving, but are not so hot as to lead the Fed to pare back its support. That optimism helped lift the industrial average .DJI for a 10th straight day on Thursday, the longest string of gains since late 1996. The Dow closed at yet another record high, while the S&P 500 .SPX came within 2 points of its lifetime peak set in 2007.

The U.S. economy created 236,000 jobs last month. That was a positive surprise. But Fed officials are all too aware that the economy still needs another 3 million or so jobs just to get back to its pre- levels – and that’s not accounting for population growth.

The Fed has vowed to keep official short-term interest rates near zero until the falls to 6.5 percent, as long as inflation is not estimated to rise above 2.5 percent.

The majority of economists in the Reuters poll believe the jobless rate threshold will not be reached until at least the second half of 2015. The survey also showed economists expect a large gap, of potentially more than a year, between the end of asset purchases and the first rate rise.

“Fed officials will want to reassure market participants that tightening soon is not in the cards,” said Vincent Reinhart, economist at Morgan Stanley and a former Fed staffer.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Jan Paschal)

Business: Job openings rise in January on retail bounce back

 Business: Job openings rise in January on retail bounce back

() – A bounce back in vacant retail positions lifted the number of jobs open in the United States in January, but the overall tone continued to point to only a moderate improvement in the labor market.

Job openings – a measure of labor demand – increased to a seasonally adjusted 3.7 million in January from 3. in December, the said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday.

Retail sector job openings increased by 34,000 in January after declining the prior month. Job openings in manufacturing and construction rose modestly. There were also a small increase in government job openings.

Vacancies declined in education and , and leisure and hospitality.

Today’s jobs report is an unambiguously positive one: America had 236,000 more jobs in February than it had in January, and the is down to 7.7%, the lowest it’s been since 2008, before was even sworn in. (Although, it’s still nowhere near the 6.5% at which the Fed will start thinking about tightening .) Things are getting better, US notwithstanding, and it’s great to see construction in particular, especially non-residential construction, finally making a substantial positive contribution to the numbers.

All is not entirely sweetness and light, though, as Brad DeLong and many others have noted. The number of multiple jobholders rose by 340,000 this month, to 7.26 million — a rise larger than the headline rise in payrolls. Which means that one way of looking at this report is to say that all of the created were second or third jobs, going to people who were already employed elsewhere. Meanwhile, the number of people unemployed for six months or longer went up by 89,000 people this month, to 4.8 million, and the average duration of unemployment also rose, to 36.9 weeks from 35.3 weeks.

In terms of the economy, it’s not good enough to simply increase employment and decrease unemployment, if the proportion of people with jobs isn’t actually going up. Which is why this chart, from Calculated Risk, is the most important one to look at right now:

Both the employment-to-population ratio ad the labor force participation rate are much lower than they ought to be: if this is a recovery, the former in particular ought to be going up, rather than going nowhere. Yes, it’s important to ensure that the unemployed get jobs. But in many ways it’s even more important to try to create jobs for people who simply aren’t working, rather than just for the people who are actively looking for work.

To turn these ratios into hard numbers: there are 89.3 million Americans who are not in the labor force, of whom just 6.8 million currently want a job. The economy ought to be able to find good, rewarding jobs not only for the 6.8 million, but for a large chunk of the other 82.5 million as well. Just imagine what that would do for tax revenues: all our fiscal problems would be solved at a stroke!

Business: Steady job gains seen bolstering economy

 Business: Steady job gains seen bolstering economy

(Reuters) – Job growth likely advanced at a in February, which would suggest the economy has enough momentum to withstand the blow from higher taxes and deep cuts.

Employers are expected to have added 160,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, picking up slightly from January’s 157,000 count, according to a of economists.

While that would only be enough to hold the unemployment rate steady at 7.9 percent, it would be another sign of the economy’s fundamental health, which has already propelled the average .DJI to .

“Even though it doesn’t necessary mean an acceleration in , it suggests the economy is able to absorb the fiscal austerity,” said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York.

A 2 percent payroll tax cut ended and tax rates went up for wealthy Americans on January 1. In addition, $85 billion in federal that could slice as much as 0.6 from growth this year started on March 1.

The Labor Department will release the February employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

While, February’s anticipated pace will be below the 177,000 jobs per month average for the six months through January, there are other hints that the labor market’s tone is improving.

First-time claims for jobless benefits fell significantly in February and a report on Wednesday showed private employers hired more workers than expected that month, which led some economists to brace for an on Friday.

A snowstorm that buried the East Coast during the survey week for the report could also have kept some workers at home, temporarily depressing the jobs tally in February.

“We are moving in the right direction, but it’s just frustratingly slow,” said Peter McHenry, an assistant economics professor at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg in Virginia. “We want job growth to be large and robust, and there are still way too many people who are unemployed.”

About 22.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed.

FED STILL IN PLAY

With employment falling far short of the roughly 250,000 jobs per month over a sustained period that economists say is needed to significantly reduce unemployment, the report will give the ammunition to maintain its very accommodative monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank is buying $85 billion in bonds per month and has said it would keep up asset purchases until it sees a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook, a message that Ben Bernanke drove home in congressional testimony last week.

Since the 2007-09 recession ended, the economy has struggled to grow above a 2 percent annual pace. In the fourth quarter, output barely expanded.

Details of the February report are expected to show broad-based gains, with construction likely the star. The sector is expected to have added at least 25,000 jobs last month. In January, construction payrolls increased 28,000, for a fourth straight month of double-digit gains.

A decisive turnaround in the housing market and rebuilding on the East Coast after the destruction wrought by Superstorm Sandy in late October is boosting jobs at construction sites.

Manufacturers likely stepped up hiring in February, although the pace is expected to still be well below what was seen early last year because of lackluster domestic demand and cooling growth overseas.

After seven straight months of gains, retail employment probably took a breather in February. Courier and messenger jobs could rebound from the previous month’s drop, but may also have been depressed by the bad weather on the East Coast.

Healthcare and social assistance probably recorded another month of solid job gains. The same is expected for leisure and hospitality.

Government payrolls are likely to have dropped by about 7,000 last month after falling 9,000 in January. Moderating local government layoffs, outside education, should help to blunt the blow from future job losses at federal agencies as Washington tightens its belt.

The sustained steady job gains are lending some stability to wages. Average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 0.2 percent last month after increasing by the same margin in January.

That would be the fourth straight month of gains in hourly earnings. They increased 2.1 percent in the 12 months through January after a similar advance in December.

“Earnings appear to have bottomed last year and are turning higher on account of the improving labor market performance,” said Mulraine.

The length of the average workweek is expected to have held steady at 34.4 hours.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Jobs, factory data point to steady economic growth

 Jobs, factory data point to steady economic growth

(Reuters) – Employment grew modestly in January and job gains in the previous two months were larger than first reported, a to recent data that suggested a tepid economic recovery had stalled at the end of last year.

Adding to that optimism, separate reports on Friday showed factory activity hit a nine-month high in January as new orders rebounded, while car and truck sales surged and consumer confidence perked.

The reports, which helped propel U.S. stock markets to their highest levels in more than five years, contrasted markedly with a earlier in the week that said the economy shrank unexpectedly in the final months of 2012, albeit for what most economists consider fleeting reasons.

“It is clear that the economy has a . Most pistons in the economic engine are firing, pointing to sustained economic growth,” said Sung Won Sohn, an at .

Employers added 157,000 jobs last month and 127,000 more jobs were created in November and December than previously reported, the Labor Department said. Revisions performed each January to the prior year’s data showed the labor market was healthier in 2012 than initially thought.

While the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent, the closely watched report showed an increase in and solid gains in construction and retail employment.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 53.1 last month, the highest level since April, from 50.2 in December. A reading over 50 suggests expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Activity was boosted by a bounce back in orders and inventories, as well as gains in employment. That offered hope manufacturing will continue to support the economy.

The fairly upbeat reports sparked a rally on Wall Street, with the touching its highest level since mid-October 2007 and the Standard & Poor’s index rising to a five-year high.

The dollar rallied against the Japanese yen, while U.S. Treasury debt prices fell marginally.

OUTPUT CONTRACTION SEEN AS A FLUKE

A third report on Friday showed consumer sentiment on the rise even as households faced up to smaller paychecks as some federal taxes rose on January 1.

The economic growth picture was also brightened by reports showing several automakers, including General Motors Co and Ford Motor Co scored better-than-expected sales in January.

The flurry of upbeat reports followed Wednesday’s surprise contraction in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, and as a group should ease worries that the United States was at risk for .

GDP contracted at a 0.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, largely because of a plunge in defense spending and in the pace of inventory accumulation.

Superstorm Sandy, which hit the East Coast in late October, also weighed on output, a drag that should lift this quarter and could be replaced by new spending linked to rebuilding projects.

“Underneath the surface, the fourth-quarter economy was really pretty good despite all the defense cuts. I think the private sector is leading the way,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago.

Still, the pace of job growth is too slow to absorb the roughly 22.7 million Americans who are either unemployed or working part-time while hoping for full-time work.

Economists say employment gains in excess of 250,000 a month over a sustained period are needed to make a significant dent in the jobless rate.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left in place a monthly $85 billion bond-buying stimulus plan, saying economic activity had “paused” in recent months.

“The report keeps the Fed clearly in play to continue their easy monetary policy,” said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Investment Managers in Boston.

The Labor Department’s annual benchmark revisions, going back to 2008, found the level of employment as of March 2012 was 422,000 higher than previously reported. That helped to push the average job growth for 2012 to 181,000 a month from 153,000 previously.

MODEST JOB GROWTH

Those steady gains, if sustained, could help the economy weather the headwinds of higher taxes and lower government spending. A payroll tax cut expired on January 1 and automatic spending cuts will kick in March unless Congress acts.

January’s job gains all came in the private sector. Hiring was broad-based, as it was in December, and declines in public sector employment were small.

The goods-producing sector showed a third month of solid gains, and manufacturing employment advanced for a fourth straight month. Construction payrolls increased 28,000, adding to December’s healthy 30,000 gain.

Since hitting a low in January 2011, construction employment has grown by 296,000. Fully one-third of those gains have taken place in the last four months alone.

Though the level of construction jobs remains about 2 million below its peak in 2006, further improvement is expected this year as the housing market recovery gains momentum.

Housing is expected to support the economy this year, taking over the baton from manufacturing, as many Americans buy and start to furnish and renovate houses.

Within the vast private services sector, retail jobs rose by a solid 32,600 jobs after rising 11,200 in December. Retail employment has now risen for seven straight months.

Education and health payrolls added 25,000 jobs in January after employment grew by the most in 10 months in December.

Government payrolls dropped by 9,000 last month after falling 6,000 in December. The pace of cuts is moderating as local government layoffs, outside education, subside.

Average hourly earnings rose four cents last month and were up 2.1 percent in the 12 months through January. That followed a similar gain in December.

“It may be that we are now getting to a point in the labor market where we are going to see an upward creep in average hourly earnings,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

“That’s going to be good for the consumer and they need help because they are being whacked by the payrolls tax increase.”

The length of the workweek for the average worker was steady at 34.4 hours for a third straight month.

(Additional reporting by Ellen Freilich, Steven C. Johnson, and Leah Schnurr in New York; Editing by Ros Krasny and Andrea Ricci)