(Phatforums News / USA Today) — WASHINGTON – Syrian rebels are growing more effective as they have increasingly turned to roadside bombs and other guerrilla tactics to topple the regime of Bashar Assad, according to military statistics and analysts.
Syrian forces have pushed rebels from major cities, such as Homs, but insurgents operate with near impunity in parts of the countryside, outside the reach of Syria’s overstretched military.
“We’ve really seen in the month of June and first week of July a huge growth in rebel capability,” said Joseph Holliday, a Syria analyst at the Institute for the Study of War who recently completed a report on the conflict. Rebels are getting a boost from ammunition and money that have begun flowing into Syria, primarily from Persian Gulf countries, the report says.
The employment of improvised explosive devices, such as roadside bombs, has nearly doubled through June of this year compared with all of last year, according to the U.S. military’s Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization. The numbers that percentage is based on are classified. The Institute for Defense Analysis, which conducts research for the U.S. government, reported that 236 improvised explosive devices were discovered or detonated in Syria this year.
Despite rebel progress, Syria’s army is still capable of holding the major cities and protecting the regime, creating conditions for a long struggle. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this long bloody cycle of attrition could go on for quite some time,” said Aram Nerguizian, a military strategy analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Rebel ranks have swelled to about 40,000 since the insurgency started more than a year ago, according to the Institute for the Study of War report. They face overwhelming firepower from an army of more than 200,000 active-duty troops, pro-government militias and security services equipped with tanks, artillery and helicopters.
Russia, a major arms supplier to Syria, said Monday that it would not sign new weapons contracts with Assad’s regime until the situation calms down. International envoy Kofi Annan said he has reached a framework with Assad for a cease-fire but has yet to discuss it with rebel leaders.
Some Republicans call for the United States to do more to support the rebels against an adversary aligned with Iran. “We should get arms to them so that we can balance the forces,” Arizona Sen. John McCain told CBS’ Face the Nation this weekend. “It’s not a fair fight.”
Insurgents have abandoned efforts to hold cities such as Homs, where an offensive by the Syrian military drove them from the city.
“They understand they can’t confront the Syrian army,” said Sterling Jensen, an analyst at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. “They are going to just weaken it.”
The new rebel strategy has freed up fighters to concentrate forces in strategic areas such as Atarib, a town that controls the road between the Turkish border and Aleppo, a commercial hub. Rebels have held the town despite repeated military offensives, Holliday said.
Rebels are growing more organized, establishing regional military and civilian councils. However, many rebel groups remain rivals, competing for resources and influence. “Eventually they’re going to have to unite more,” Jensen said.
